Small Market. Big Opportunity.
There’s a temptation to misread a market slowdown as a market downturn. But that would be a mistake.
Across Fairfield County’s luxury corridor, August was a tale of less - fewer new listings, fewer closings, and less foot traffic through open houses. But the quality of the transactions told a different story: homes that were priced right and beautifully presented still sold quickly - and often well above asking.
This isn’t a softening market. It’s a market that’s tightening in silence. And it’s shaping up to give savvy sellers a rare window this fall.
The Data Behind the Story (August 2025 vs. August 2024)
- Unit Sales - ↓ 5.4%
- New Listings - ↓ 39.2%
- Average Days on Market - ↓ 3.3%
- Median Sale Price - ↑ 8.8%
- Sales-to-List Price Ratio - ↑ to 103.6%
In plain terms: inventory is vanishing, yet buyers are still paying more - and doing so faster - than last year. It’s a seller’s market, but only for sellers who understand how to win in this kind of environment. And buyers still hold power - but only when they act decisively.
What We’re Seeing on the Ground
Some stories don’t show up in the data - but they shape the market all the same.
Across our open houses and private showings in July and August, we’ve observed fewer buyers walking through the door. Fewer offers being made. A quieter pace.
But when the right home hits the market - staged, priced smartly, and move-in ready - the buyers show up, and they pay. That’s been the defining theme of Q3.
Homes that don’t sell typically miss in one of two places:
- Presentation (no staging, weak photos, poor prep)
- Pricing (chasing last year’s comps or overshooting the current moment)
- Important note: One of the great mistakes we see in today’s market is clients hiring an advisor who proposes an inflated list price. Pricing does not exist in a vacuum. Do not select your advisor based on the list price without comprehensive data and a marketing strategy in support of their pricing recommendation.
This is not a demand issue - it’s a strategy issue.
What This Means for Sellers
Too many would-be sellers are sitting on the sidelines, convinced they’ve missed the top or should wait until spring. Here’s the truth:
- Sales-to-list price ratio is rising - buyers are paying above asking in many towns (Darien: 105.6%, Wilton: 105.8%, Fairfield: 105.1%).
- Days on Market dropped across 6 of the 9 towns we track - faster sales signal buyer conviction.
- Median price rose nearly 9% year-over-year, despite double-digit drops in inventory.
- This market is rewarding preparation - and penalizing hesitation.
Seller Takeaway: The Best Homes Still Win Big
Sellers who price correctly, stage thoughtfully, and come to market with intention are outperforming even last year’s highs. In Darien, for example, prices surged nearly 38% and homes sold 10 days faster - that’s not luck, that’s strategy.
Action Steps:
- Don’t wait for “next spring.” Scarcity is your friend - now may be your moment.
- Prep like it’s your one shot to impress - because it is.
- Call us to position your home among the few that succeed big.
What This Means for Buyers
There’s an emotional trap here: believing that rising rates or lower national activity means you have more leverage. In many local markets, that’s simply not true.
- Wilton, Fairfield, and Darien all saw prices surge despite lower inventory and fewer sales.
- Multiple towns saw 100%+ list-to-sale ratios, signaling that buyers are still competing when the right home comes to market.
- Inventory is collapsing: Westport (-22.7%), Greenwich (-42.9%), Fairfield (-47.9%), Weston (-76.9%).
Buyer Takeaway: Patience + Preparation = Power
The best homes are moving fast and often above ask. But lesser homes are lingering, presenting opportunity. If you're clear on what you're buying and ready to act, you can still win.
Action Steps:
- Work with us to identify off-market and soon-to-list opportunities.
- Be ready to make your best offer - price is only one piece of the puzzle. Terms, timing, and trust matter more than ever.
- Know your criteria. Wait with purpose, not passivity.
Looking Ahead: A Small but Strong Fall Market
We’re often asked: “Is now a good time to list? Or should I wait until spring?”
Here’s how we’re advising our clients:
- We’re entering a small - but strong - fall market.
Inventory is tight. Demand is real. And we are prepping multiple homes for listing this fall for precisely that reason. - Mortgage rates are forecast to come down.
The Fed has signaled a shift. When rates drop, buyer activity picks up - fast. - Inventory remains deeply constrained.
New listings fell nearly 40% year-over-year. List now and stand out. - Act based on what we know - not what we hope.
Right now: prices are strong, buyer demand is high, and well-positioned homes are selling.
Q1 2026 may be great. Or it may not. But this market is real - and ready.
Seller Action Plan:
- Don’t wait for perfect timing. List based on market strength, not seasonality.
- Let others wait for spring. You can win this fall - if you’re ready.
Big Picture: The Trendline Is Clear
Let’s not forget what July taught us:
- Inventory was already falling
- Buyers were acting decisively - when the product was right
- Pricing power was building, but selectively
August simply confirmed the trend:
- Inventory fell further
- Prices climbed again
- Buyer conviction held steady for desirable homes
The takeaway? This market hasn’t changed direction - it has accelerated in the same direction.
This is not a normal market. That’s the point.
Final Thought: Strategy Wins
While national headlines point to cooling, Fairfield County continues to behave like a high-barrier, low-inventory, value-stable market. Demand is concentrated. Supply is limited. And the winners - buyers and sellers alike - are those who act strategically.
Whether you're looking to sell well, buy wisely, or simply understand what this market means for you - we’re here to guide you.
This market may be quieter. But the opportunities? They’re loud and clear - if you know how to spot them.
