A Strong Q1 Ends with New Signals Emerging
Real estate markets rarely shift overnight. They evolve. Quietly. Gradually. Until one quarter ends and, looking back, you realize: the playbook has changed—and those still running last year’s plays are falling behind.
Q1 2025 was one of those moments.
The market still favors sellers—but the terms of that advantage are evolving. Prices are up and inventory is down. But buyers are becoming more selective.
Great markets hide mistakes. This one doesn’t. Homes don’t sell themselves. Buyers don’t stretch without reason. In today’s environment, success doesn’t happen by accident. Great advice isn’t a luxury—it’s the lever.
The Market in Context
By the numbers, Q1 looked like a paradox:
- New listings down 28.8%
- Median prices up 19.2%
- Unit sales down only 3.5%
Alone, the data suggests a strong seller’s environment—rising prices, limited inventory, and only a modest decline in sales volume. The deeper truth is more nuanced. The market still favors sellers, yes—but that advantage now comes with conditions. Success is no longer automatic. It belongs to those who price with precision, present with intention, and understand what today’s buyers are (and aren’t) willing to stretch for.
We’re operating in a low-supply, high-expectation environment. The best homes still command premium offers. The rest? Buyers are patient—and increasingly selective. In this market, strategy—not luck—is what drives results.
What the March & Q1 Data Reveals
1.Inventory Isn’t Just Low—It’s Trapped in a Feedback Loop
March listings dropped -29.4% year over year. That’s not a seasonal dip—nor is the scarcity accidental—it’s a continuation of a structural freeze that’s become systemic. Many homeowners remain locked by golden handcuffs—sub-4% mortgage rates they’re reluctant to give up. But there’s a second, more subtle force at play: many sellers don’t list because they can’t find a home to buy.
This is no longer just a financial constraint. It’s a psychological one. Would-be sellers, ready to make a move, look around… and see nothing. So they wait. But their waiting only deepens the inventory crunch—creating a self-fulfilling cycle that suppresses supply even further.
Until this loop breaks, every well-positioned listing that does hit the market becomes a magnet—drawing attention, competition, and often, premium offers.
What this means:
Sellers: Scarcity remains your greatest ally. It’s not just a market condition; it’s a behavioral opportunity. Many would-be sellers are stuck in indecision. If you’re clear on your goals, prepared, and willing to act—as one of the few listings on the market you have an opportunity to draw serious attention and strong offers.
Buyers: Competition remains—but the homes that spark bidding wars are the ones that look scarce and feel like the right move. There are still overlooked or off-market opportunities, especially when you’re working with an advisor who knows where to look. In a market defined by hesitation, clarity creates an edge.
2. Prices Are Rising—But So Is Buyer Discipline
Q1 median prices rose +19.2%. On the surface, that looks like a strong seller signal—and it is. But the sales-to-list ratio dipped slightly—both in March and Q1. Buyers are still paying for quality, but they’re pushing back on overpricing.
What this means:
Sellers: Pricing is no longer about testing the market—it’s about understanding it. Buyers are willing to stretch—but only for homes that justify the premium. If your price doesn’t reflect true value, expect hesitation—or worse, silence.
Buyers: The fear of overpaying is being replaced by a focus on value. Bidding wars haven’t disappeared, but they’re now reserved for homes that are priced right and presented well. That creates opportunity elsewhere—for those who are patient, analytical, and advised well.
3. Days on Market Is a Canary in the Coal Mine
Days on Market fell for Q1—but crept up in March. That sounds contradictory, until you realize what’s happening: buyers are decisive on the right properties, and cautious on the rest. This is no longer a rising tide lifting all listings. It’s a game of winners and laggards.
What this means:
Sellers: Speed still signals strength—but it’s no longer automatic. If your home lingers on the market, it’s likely a mismatch in pricing, presentation, or both. In this environment, buyers are watching closely. The longer your listing sits, the more negotiating power they assume they have.
Buyers: Longer days on market shouldn’t be dismissed—they should be dissected. Some properties are sitting for a reason. Others are hidden opportunities: overlooked, under-marketed, or waiting for the right offer structure. With the right guidance, these homes can offer real value—without bidding war fatigue.
The Big Picture
Fewer homes. Stronger prices. Sharper buyers. If you’re thinking of selling this year, accelerate your timeline. April and May could be your sweet spot to capitalize on scarcity.
