November is one of the most quietly revealing months of the year.
When the noise of peak season fades, what remains is the market’s true signal. And this November, that signal was clear: demand is still strong, supply is still scarce, and the homes that are prepared and priced with precision continue to lead the market.
Across Fairfield County’s nine luxury towns, the data shows a landscape not weakening but tightening – a market gliding into year-end with remarkable resilience.
The Executive Take
Across the nine towns we track:
- Unit sales declined -10.3% YoY, almost entirely because
- New listings fell a staggering -28.6% YoY
- Days on Market held steady (-1.7%)
- List-to-sale prices remained exceptionally strong (101.8%)
- Median prices softened slightly (-3.9%), driven by mix, not market deterioration
This is the same imbalance we’ve observed all year:
The market doesn’t have a demand problem. It has a supply problem.
The results are consistent with our Q4 expectations. Buyers remain rational but highly committed. Sellers who list well-presented homes continue to command premium outcomes. And the early signals for Q1 2026 point to yet another inventory-constrained environment.
What the Data Reveals (The Signal Behind the Numbers)
1. Unit Sales Fell. But Only Because Sellers Didn’t List
The story of November is simple:
Sales fell because supply collapsed, not because demand disappeared.
- Darien: New listings down -75%, sales down -35%
- Westport: New listings down -30.8%, sales down -11.1%
- Southport: New listings flat at one, sales cut in half
- Fairfield: New listings down nearly -47%, yet sales increased +11.9%
When buyers purchase more despite being offered less, that is not a soft market – it is a demand-heavy one.
2. Buyers Are Still Paying Full Price (Often More)
The list-to-sale ratio across all nine towns was 101.8% – essentially unchanged YoY.
Several markets strengthened:
- Southport: 105.7%
- Ridgefield: 103.5%
- Greenwich: 101.9% (+2.0 pts)
This is a tell-tale marker of buyer strength:
When the right home comes along, buyers still compete for it.
3. Days on Market Confirm Resilience, Not Weakness
If the market were softening, DOM would rise meaningfully. It didn’t.
Across all towns, DOM decreased slightly (-1.7%), with notable reductions in:
- Fairfield (-19%)
- Darien (-19%)
- Southport (-43%)
The bifurcation continues:
- Move-in-ready homes sell quickly.
- Homes needing work or priced aspirationally sit.
But the overall tempo of the market remains brisk.
4. Median Price Softened - But It’s Not a Market Decline
Median price fell -3.9%, but this is a mix effect.
High-end sellers sat out November, leaving fewer luxury closings to pull the median upward.
Meanwhile, towns with actual competitive bidding saw meaningful price gains:
- Fairfield: +13.8%
- Southport: +12.9%
- Weston: +11.2%
This is why we always caution that:
Median price tells you what sold, not what the market is willing to pay.
DOM and list-to-sale ratios are the real indicators of seller leverage – and both remain strong.
What This Means for Sellers
1. Q1 2026 May Be One of the Best Windows We’ve Seen in Years
With November listings down nearly -30%, we will enter the new year with:
- Exceptionally low inventory
- A patient but energized buyer pool
- Strong list-to-sale ratios
- Competitive behavior for turnkey homes
If you are considering selling in early 2026, the data is telling you:
You will have leverage – possibly significant leverage.
2. Preparation Has Become the Ultimate Differentiator
The spread between “move-in-ready” and “needs work” homes is widening every month.
Year–to–date in 2025, CR&T listings have meaningfully outperformed the market:
- Sold for 4.2% above the market’s average list-to-sales ratio
- Sold 34% faster than comparable homes
The lesson is simple: preparation raises both the price and the pace of a sale.
3. Pricing Strategy Matters More Than Ever
This market punishes guesswork and rewards precision.
Our guidance:
- Price with discipline
- Use data, not anecdotes
- Anchor to absorption rates
- Present a home that feels “finished”
This combination continues to drive above-market outcomes for our clients.
What This Means for Buyers
1. The Competition Isn’t Going Away in Q1
Buyers often assume winter equals a buyer’s market.
In Fairfield County luxury, the opposite is true.
With inventory this tight, waiting until spring likely means:
- More competition
- Fewer negotiable sellers
- Faster-moving homes
2. Be Prepared to Act Quickly
For the right home:
- Have financing locked
- Understand value before you tour
- Be decisive when the home checks your boxes
- Expect that well-prepared homes will attract interest
In a thin market, speed and clarity matter.
3. Don’t Misread Median Price Softening
Lower median prices do not mean “homes are cheaper.”
They simply reflect a different mix of homes sold.
The true cost of waiting often reveals itself in:
Higher competition
- Fewer quality listings
- Paying up for the one that fits
Where We Go From Here (Looking Toward Q1 2026)
November’s numbers reinforce what we’ve already been seeing:
- Demand is intact
- Supply is increasingly constrained
- Buyers are rational but ready
- Sellers still hold the advantage when the home is positioned well
As we enter 2026, the biggest variable will not be the Fed, interest rates, or economic headlines.
It will be inventory – again.
If the past three months are any guide, Q1 will open with tight supply and strong buyer appetite, creating an exceptional opportunity for sellers and a competitive environment for buyers.
Closing Thought | An Advisor’s Note
Every market tells a story.
This November, the message was quiet but clear: When the noise fades, the fundamentals remain – and the fundamentals still favor sellers who prepare well and buyers who act decisively.
We will continue to guide you through both: with clarity, precision, and an advisor’s mindset.
