We’ve reached the end of Q3. And if you’re still waiting for the market to shift in your favor - you may be missing it altogether.
Let’s get straight to it:
The story of 2025 isn’t about recovery or decline.
It’s about discipline.
Buyers are disciplined. Sellers are being rewarded for it.
And inventory - or the lack thereof - is still the lever that determines everything.
The Data Behind the Discipline
Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024:
- Unit Sales: ▼ 0.1% (flat)
- Median Sales Price: ▲ 9.4%
- Average Days on Market: ▼ 6%
- Sales-to-List Price Ratio: ▲ 103.7%
- New Listings: ▼ 29.4%
Let’s pause here.
Sales volume held flat - despite nearly 30% fewer homes listed.
That’s not stagnation.
That’s proof that buyers are still here, still motivated, and still paying a premium… but only when a home gives them a reason to act.
What We Learned in Q3?
Quoting Charlie Munger: Invert, always invert.
Instead of asking why some homes didn’t sell, we asked: What’s true of the ones that did?
Here’s what the data told us:
- Inventory dropped across the board, but demand held steady - if anything, buyers got sharper.
- Days on Market compressed, dropping to 44 days on average.
- High-end buyers returned: Median prices jumped significantly in Ridgefield (+22%), Greenwich (+18%), and New Canaan (+13%).
- Presentation separated winners from laggards: In the homes we sold throughout Q3, results of 10%+ over asking were driven by staging, preparation, and expert storytelling.
- Selectivity is up. Passivity is not. This isn’t a market of hesitation. It’s a market of intention.
Translation: Sellers who came to market with a plan won. Sellers who came to market with a hope sat still.
Q4 2025 Outlook: Why There’s a Window Now
The Fed has already cut rates once - and signaled two more likely by early 2026.
But here’s what most people miss:
- The first cut didn’t move mortgage rates. Why? Because the market had already priced it in.
- That said, if rates dip below 6%, we believe that could be a psychological tipping point - triggering a fresh wave of buyers into an already crowded pool.
- That means more offers. More competition. More pressure. Most notably in the under - $2mm range.
Sellers who act now get ahead of that surge.
Buyers who wait for “better rates” may find themselves in bidding wars instead.
And inventory? Still falling.
- New listings were down 29% this quarter - and more than 50% in towns like Wilton and Ridgefield.
Here’s the setup:
More buyers.
Fewer homes.
More bidding wars.
Sellers who move with intention get ahead of that curve - not caught in it.
The Q4 “Slowdown” as a Misread
Yes, fewer homes list in Q4. That’s precisely why it’s a strategic time to sell.
Serious buyers stay in the market. We’ve seen it every year - October, November, even late December. And those buyers? They’re focused, decisive, and often facing limited choices.
The difference in Q4:
- Less noise
- More urgency
- And standout homes stand alone
In December 2024, we helped a client both purchase and sell - in under two weeks.
It wasn’t timing. It was strategy. It can be done.
If your home is ready - and so are you - don’t wait. The market is already here.
CR&T Advisory Takeaways
For Sellers:
- Inventory is your advantage. With 30% fewer listings, you’re not just selling - you’re standing alone.
- The best offers are coming now. Buyers are acting with conviction and paying full value for homes that justify it.
- Pricing isn’t a number. It’s a strategy. There’s a ceiling to what buyers will pay - and a floor to what sellers can expect when properly prepared.
→ Action Step: If you’re thinking about selling between now and next spring, call us now.
Let’s help you make sense of the moment - and move with clarity.
For Buyers:
- Don’t misread the market. Lower rates won’t make homes cheaper. They’ll make them harder to get.
- The strongest offers win - not always the highest. Clean terms, certainty, and speed have become the new currency.
- The best homes aren’t on Zillow. Several of our most successful Q3 closings were secured before they ever hit the public market.
→ Action Step: Let’s meet now - not when the home appears, but before it does.
Preparation wins. Every time.
Final Thought (Thank you, Charlie)
Charlie Munger once said:
“You don’t have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long time.”
In this market, wisdom looks like this:
- As a seller: Don’t chase the crowd. Lead it.
- As a buyer: Don’t chase the home. Be ready before it hits.
Smart beats lucky. Strategy beats timing.
We’re here to help you win with both.
