September Market Snapshot

September Market Snapshot

  • Cindy Raney & Team
  • 10/2/25
We’ve reached the end of Q3. And if you’re still waiting for the market to shift in your favor - you may be missing it altogether.
 
Let’s get straight to it:
 
The story of 2025 isn’t about recovery or decline.
 
It’s about discipline.
 
Buyers are disciplined. Sellers are being rewarded for it.
 
And inventory - or the lack thereof - is still the lever that determines everything.
 
 
The Data Behind the Discipline
 
Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024:
  • Unit Sales: â–¼ 0.1% (flat)
  • Median Sales Price: â–² 9.4%
  • Average Days on Market: â–¼ 6%
  • Sales-to-List Price Ratio: â–² 103.7%
  • New Listings: â–¼ 29.4%
Let’s pause here.
 
Sales volume held flat - despite nearly 30% fewer homes listed.
 
That’s not stagnation.
 
That’s proof that buyers are still here, still motivated, and still paying a premium… but only when a home gives them a reason to act.
 
 
What We Learned in Q3?
Quoting Charlie Munger: Invert, always invert.
 
Instead of asking why some homes didn’t sell, we asked: What’s true of the ones that did?
 
Here’s what the data told us:
  • Inventory dropped across the board, but demand held steady - if anything, buyers got sharper.
  • Days on Market compressed, dropping to 44 days on average.
  • High-end buyers returned: Median prices jumped significantly in Ridgefield (+22%), Greenwich (+18%), and New Canaan (+13%).
  • Presentation separated winners from laggards: In the homes we sold throughout Q3, results of 10%+ over asking were driven by staging, preparation, and expert storytelling.
  • Selectivity is up. Passivity is not. This isn’t a market of hesitation. It’s a market of intention.
Translation: Sellers who came to market with a plan won. Sellers who came to market with a hope sat still.
 
 
Q4 2025 Outlook: Why There’s a Window Now
 
The Fed has already cut rates once - and signaled two more likely by early 2026.
 
But here’s what most people miss:
  • The first cut didn’t move mortgage rates. Why? Because the market had already priced it in.
  • That said, if rates dip below 6%, we believe that could be a psychological tipping point - triggering a fresh wave of buyers into an already crowded pool.
  • That means more offers. More competition. More pressure. Most notably in the under - $2mm range.
Sellers who act now get ahead of that surge.
 
Buyers who wait for “better rates” may find themselves in bidding wars instead.
 
And inventory? Still falling.
  • New listings were down 29% this quarter - and more than 50% in towns like Wilton and Ridgefield.
Here’s the setup:
 
More buyers.
 
Fewer homes.
 
More bidding wars.
 
Sellers who move with intention get ahead of that curve - not caught in it.
 
 
The Q4 “Slowdown” as a Misread
 
Yes, fewer homes list in Q4. That’s precisely why it’s a strategic time to sell.
 
Serious buyers stay in the market. We’ve seen it every year - October, November, even late December. And those buyers? They’re focused, decisive, and often facing limited choices.
 
The difference in Q4:
  • Less noise
  • More urgency
  • And standout homes stand alone 
In December 2024, we helped a client both purchase and sell - in under two weeks.
 
It wasn’t timing. It was strategy. It can be done.
 
If your home is ready - and so are you - don’t wait. The market is already here.
 
 
CR&T Advisory Takeaways
 
For Sellers:
  • Inventory is your advantage. With 30% fewer listings, you’re not just selling - you’re standing alone.
  • The best offers are coming now. Buyers are acting with conviction and paying full value for homes that justify it.
  • Pricing isn’t a number. It’s a strategy. There’s a ceiling to what buyers will pay - and a floor to what sellers can expect when properly prepared.
→ Action Step: If you’re thinking about selling between now and next spring, call us now.
 
Let’s help you make sense of the moment - and move with clarity.
 
For Buyers:
  • Don’t misread the market. Lower rates won’t make homes cheaper. They’ll make them harder to get.
  • The strongest offers win - not always the highest. Clean terms, certainty, and speed have become the new currency.
  • The best homes aren’t on Zillow. Several of our most successful Q3 closings were secured before they ever hit the public market.
→ Action Step: Let’s meet now - not when the home appears, but before it does.
 
Preparation wins. Every time.
 
 
Final Thought (Thank you, Charlie)
 
Charlie Munger once said:
 
“You don’t have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long time.”
 
In this market, wisdom looks like this:
  • As a seller: Don’t chase the crowd. Lead it.
  • As a buyer: Don’t chase the home. Be ready before it hits.
Smart beats lucky. Strategy beats timing.
 
We’re here to help you win with both.

 

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Cindy Raney & Team is the elite, boutique real estate team in Fairfield County. They are extremely well versed in the industry, having sold over half a billion dollars in luxury real estate. Cindy’s team is particularly focused on the client experience, helping them throughout the home buying or selling process to ensure that their experience with the team is exceptional.

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