At the close of 2024, we forecasted that the first quarter of 2025 would continue to favor well-prepared sellers, with inventory remaining tight and buyer competition sustaining strong sale-to-list price ratios.
January’s data affirms this outlook—homes continue to sell quickly, often above asking, provided they are move-in ready and appropriately priced.
This market dynamic is not new; rather, it reflects the slow-moving forces underpinning today’s real estate landscape. Sellers are constrained by golden handcuffs—low mortgage rates locked in during prior years—while buyers face persistent competition for high-quality homes.
The imbalance between supply and demand remains the dominant story.
What the Data Reveals
Homes Are Selling Faster
Compared to one year ago, in multiple key markets, Days on Market (DOM) has fallen dramatically:
- Westport: -56.8% (95 to 41 days)
- Darien: -57.9% (126 to 53 days)
- New Canaan: -36.4% (132 to 84 days)
- Greenwich: -31.3% (115 to 79 days)
These numbers indicate urgency from buyers, especially in prime locations. When homes move faster, it suggests that well-positioned properties are commanding immediate attention—a signal that demand remains robust despite broader economic uncertainty.
Sellers Still Hold Leverage
List-to-sale price ratios remain strong, topping 100% across nearly every market. This confirms that pricing power remains in the hands of sellers—buyers are stretching to secure properties, often bidding above asking to win in competitive scenarios.
The Inventory Dilemma—A Self-Reinforcing Cycle
The reluctance of homeowners to list their properties is creating a bottleneck:
Those who secured mortgage rates below 4% are hesitant to sell, reluctant to take on higher borrowing costs.
Would-be sellers ready to move find themselves with limited inventory, discouraging them from listing.
Low inventory reinforces itself, keeping supply tight and prices high—leaving sellers in control while buyers face intense competition.
A Market Like a Chess Match
Warren Buffett often frames investing as a game of patience, where those who recognize long-term advantages win. The current market is not unlike a chessboard—sellers are in control, holding the strategic high ground, while buyers must anticipate moves ahead and act with precision.
For sellers, the play is simple: stay in the game while conditions favor you. The scarcity of inventory is akin to controlling the center of the board—you dictate the terms. For buyers, success depends on recognizing that hesitation is costly. When an opportunity presents itself, speed and decisiveness will determine who walks away with the winning position.
Guidance for Sellers
- Leverage the scarcity advantage: The lack of available homes is your strongest ally—list now while competition among buyers remains high.
- Maximize presentation: Homes that are staged and in top condition are outperforming expectations; those that aren’t risk stagnating.
- Strategic pricing is key: Buyers will stretch budgets for the right home, but mispricing can lead to wasted time on the market.
Guidance for Buyers
- Move decisively: The days of waiting for price corrections or increased supply are not materializing—hesitation will cost you.
- Expect competition: Bidding wars continue, especially for move-in-ready properties. Come prepared with a strong offer.
- Look beyond traditional inventory: Off-market opportunities or pre-market listings can provide an edge.
Big Picture: What This Means for Q1 and Beyond
January’s data supports our Q1 outlook—sellers who list now remain in an advantageous position, and buyers who act decisively will secure the best opportunities. Until inventory constraints ease, expect these dynamics to continue.
The real estate market rewards those who understand the forces at play—a disciplined, strategic approach remains the key to success.
If you’re interested in learning more about today’s market dynamics, we’re here to help. If you’re in the market to buy or sell your property, let’s discuss how we can position you for success.
We believe that great advice makes all the difference.
