The opening month of Q4 revealed a rational, resilient market.
October marked the start of Q4, and while the air cooled, the market did not. Across Fairfield County’s nine luxury markets, the same imbalance held - demand still outweighs supply. What changed were the nuances - slightly longer marketing times, a more rational buyer pool, and a market that rewards preparation and precision above all else.
The Executive Take
Across Fairfield County (year-over-year):
- Unit sales rose +11% - proof that buyers are still transacting even as headlines suggest fatigue.
- Median sale price climbed +20% to $1.825M, driven by a higher share of luxury trades (particularly in Westport and New Canaan).
- Days on Market (DOM) jumped +37% o 60 days, signaling selectivity, not softness.
- List-to-sale price ratio remained strong at 101.8% (down only 1.1 points).
- New listings fell –12% , confirming that scarcity continues to define the landscape.
In short: buyers remain motivated, sellers remain advantaged - but both must navigate with skill, not luck.
Signals Beneath the Surface
1 | Inventory Tightness Still Rules
We anticipated Q4 would open with subdued listing volume, and October confirmed it.
New listings declined 12% year-over-year, perpetuating the self-reinforcing cycle: homeowners hesitate to sell because they see little to buy.
Takeaway:
- For sellers: scarcity continues to work in your favor - if your home is properly positioned.
- For buyers: waiting for a surge in inventory is wishful thinking. Be ready when quality appears.
2 | DOM Is Rising - But Only for the Unprepared
The 36.8% increase in Days on Market isn’t a sign of weakness - it’s segmentation.
- Turn-key homes, staged and priced with discipline, still sell within weeks.
- Dated or mispriced listings linger for months.
Westport (74 DOM, +80%) and Weston (110 DOM, +156%) show that higher-end homes can sit longer when they overshoot value or readiness.
Takeaway: The market isn’t slowing - it’s penalizing indecision.
3 | Pricing Power Remains Remarkably Resilient
Despite longer timelines, sellers still achieved 101.8% of list on average - only a slight dip from 2024.
- Wilton (104.3%) and Ridgefield (104.2%) led.
- Even Greenwich (102.2%) improved year-over-year.
- Only Weston and New Canaan (99.1%) fell below 100%, both due to listing mix.
Takeaway: buyers are still paying up—but only for homes that justify it.
4 | Median Price Growth Reflects Mix, Not Inflation
A +20% median price gain sounds dramatic, but it’s compositional.
- Westport’s median +87% to $2.9M (more $3M+ sales).
- Fairfield +56% to $1.29M.
- Greenwich –21%, a pullback in ultra-luxury closings.
Takeaway: prices didn’t inflate; higher-end transactions simply dominated the month.
An Emerging Pattern: A Rational Luxury Market
2024 was emotional - fueled by scarcity and FOMO.
2025 is analytical. Buyers still compete, but they walk from overpriced listings. Sellers still win, but they earn it through strategy and execution.
This is a mature market, not a manic one.
Looking Ahead | Setting Up for Q1 2026
October’s patterns point to a first quarter defined by:
- Continued low supply,
- Stable pricing for quality homes, and
- More balanced negotiation as logic tempers urgency.
For Sellers:
- Act now if absolutely necessary or prepare for January/February. The early-Q1 window captures pent-up demand and limited competition.
- Invest where ROI is clear. Small upgrades—lighting, paint, landscaping—compress DOM.
- Price truthfully. In a rational market, overpricing isn’t aspirational; it’s expensive.
You’re still in control - but the playbook has evolved from “list and wait” to “prepare and perform.”
For Buyers:
- Be decisive and prepare financing. Well-positioned listings still move in days.
- Craft compelling offers. Flexibility with closing timing, rent-backs, and terms can often outperform a higher price.
- Look quietly. Off-market and “coming soon” inventory continues to expand.
This isn’t the time to sit it out; it’s the time to be ready.
A Note on New York City Migration
We’ve been asked whether Zohran Mamdani’s election as Mayor of New York City could trigger another wave of migration from the city into Fairfield County - similar to what we saw during 2020–2022.
The short answer: it’s too early, and perhaps too simple, to draw that conclusion.
It’s worth remembering that markets, both real estate and financial, tend to anticipate change. By the time an election result is official, much of its impact is already priced in - just as equity markets often absorb an expected rate cut before it happens.
So, while it’s possible that a few city homeowners may accelerate relocation plans in response, it’s unlikely to spark the kind of exodus we saw during COVID. That migration was driven by necessity and lifestyle shifts, not politics.
But let’s suppose we’re wrong. What happens if Fairfield County does see another dramatic surge like 2020–2022? Here’s the rub: even if demand from New York rises, it doesn’t change the fundamental constraint - inventory. We can bring more buyers into Fairfield County, but we can’t conjure more homes for them to purchase. The limiting factor isn’t interest - it’s availability.
The more telling moment will come in Q1 2026, when spring listings typically surface and open house activity peaks. Only then will we see whether buyer inflow from New York is anecdotal or material.
Until then, it’s best to do what the best advisors always do - avoid forecasting, stay attentive, and prepare to act if the data warrants it.
Final Thoughts
The Fairfield County luxury market continues to defy the broader national slowdown - not by inflating, but by normalizing with discipline.
In 2025, Fairfield County’s market is rewarding judgment.
And for those who make smart, informed moves - it’s rewarding them handsomely.
We’re aware that much of our advice sounds familiar. That’s because it’s meant to. Markets reward consistency of judgment more than novelty of opinion.
Until the dynamics truly shift - until inventory normalizes, rates move meaningfully, or buyer psychology resets - the fundamentals remain our compass.
Price truthfully. Prepare fully. Act decisively.
The playbook hasn’t changed because the field hasn’t either.
To position yourself advantageously for Q1 2026, reach out to Cindy Raney & Team and start planning now.
FAQ: Fairfield County Luxury Market Outlook + Q1 2026 Strategy
Is the Fairfield County luxury market slowing down going into Q4?
Not exactly. The market is becoming more rational, not weaker. Buyers are still active, but they’re more selective, and homes that aren’t priced or prepared correctly are taking longer to sell.
What does it mean that unit sales are up year-over-year?
It means buyers are still transacting. Even with more cautious sentiment in the headlines, activity remains strong, especially in Fairfield County’s luxury segment where demand continues to exceed supply.
Why are Days on Market rising if the market is still strong?
Rising Days on Market reflects segmentation. Turn-key, well-staged, properly priced homes are still moving quickly, while homes that are dated or overpriced are sitting longer. The market is penalizing indecision, not rewarding it.
Why did median sale price rise so sharply year-over-year?
Much of the increase is driven by the mix of sales, not broad price inflation. A higher share of luxury transactions (especially in markets like Westport and New Canaan) can push the median higher even if pricing fundamentals are stable.
What does “inventory tightness still rules” mean for sellers?
Scarcity continues to favor sellers, but the advantage only holds if the home is positioned correctly. In today’s market, sellers still win—but they earn it through preparation, presentation, and pricing discipline.
What does low inventory mean for buyers heading into Q1 2026?
It means waiting for a major surge in listings is unlikely to be a winning strategy. The best approach is to stay prepared so you can act quickly when the right home appears.
What should sellers do now to prepare for Q1 2026?
Sellers should treat Q1 as a performance window. That means investing in high-ROI improvements (paint, lighting, landscaping), staging where appropriate, and pricing truthfully. In a rational market, overpricing tends to extend DOM and reduce leverage.
How can buyers write a more competitive offer without overpaying?
In this environment, terms matter more than ever. Flexibility on closing timelines, rent-backs, deposit strength, and clean contingencies can outperform a higher price—especially when sellers value certainty.
Will NYC migration increase demand in Fairfield County again?
It’s too early to call. Even if there’s a modest increase in buyer interest, the limiting factor remains inventory. The real signal will come in Q1 2026 when spring activity and listing volume reveal whether demand is anecdotal or meaningful.
